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EU Candidates Hold Breath As Irish Vote

The Irish vote could derail the EU historic eastwards expansion

BRUSSELS, October 19 (IslamOnline & News Agencies) - The EU and its long-suffering candidate states watched anxiously Saturday, October 19, as Ireland voted in a referendum which could derail the bloc's historic eastwards expansion.

EU leaders repeatedly warned that there is no "plan B" if the Irish again reject the Nice Treaty on enlargement - an assertion questioned by analysts, even if it is clear that a new "no" vote would delay expansion, according to Agence France-Presse (AFP).

Brussels faces crunch time on a number of fronts, even if the Irish vote "yes," disagreements notably over financing will notably cloud the agenda of an EU summit in Brussels next week.

However, the Irish vote is the first key obstacle on the path straight towards European Union enlargement over the next few months.

European Commission President Romano Prodi said Saturday that there was no back-up plan in case of a new Irish snub.

"The commission has no stand-by solution," he told the Greek daily Kathimerini. "When you accept a democratic procedure, you have to accept the consequences."

The Nice treaty has to be ratified by every EU country before the end of the year or it will fall.

Observers agree that the "no plan B" mantra is, in part at least, a political strategy: any public suggestion that there is a let-out clause would make it easier for Irish hesitants to vote "no."

"It's purely strategy, it's what they've all agreed in terms of a united front”, said Kirsty Hughes of the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels.

According to diplomats, the first plan B could involve abandoning Nice, and simply including its key parts into accession accords to be signed next spring with the individual candidate states.

But experts say this could easily be challenged in the courts by an Irish voter. "And he would have every chance of winning," said a senior EU official.

Another solution would be to speed up the work of the Convention on Europe's future, headed by former French President Valery Giscard d'Estaing, to build an alternative enlargement framework.

But this would almost certainly delay enlargement "at least until 2006," said the official.

While Brussels was waiting anxiously, the relatively impoverished candidate states have more to lose.

Thirteen mostly ex-communist countries have been knocking on the EU door for more than a decade.

After years of demanding target dates, two years ago most of them were finally promised entry in 2004.

Earlier this month, the European Commission gave the green light for 10 countries to join, a recommendation due to be approved by EU heads of government meeting in Brussels next Thursday and Friday, October 24-25.

But a second Irish "no" - a referendum in June 2001 produced a shock narrow rejection - would knock them flat.

Czech President Vaclav Havel, emblematic leader of the region's 1989 overthrow of communism, warned last week that a delay in EU enlargement would amount to a "new Iron Curtain."

Poland, by far the biggest candidate state, is also on tenterhooks. "We need your help," said former Polish prime minister Tadeusz Mazowiecki, among others, in a letter to the Irish Times.

Only Ireland requires a constitutional amendment to ratify the Nice Treaty. The other 14 EU countries have already accepted it via a parliamentary vote.

Experts say a 'no' vote would be tough but not catastrophic.

"I don't think they think any of the options are perfect ... but it's not that there's completely no route to enlargement if the answer is no," said Hughes.