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General
Pervez Musharraf was the fourth army chief to do away with an
elected government exactly three years ago
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By
Asif Farooqi, IOL Pakistan correspondent
ISLAMABAD,
October 9 (IslamOnline) - Pakistan goes to the polls here Thursday,
October 10, to elect a government to end three years of military rule.
Out
of over 144 million, nearly half of Pakistanis are able to use their
right to vote to elect 272 members for the national assembly and 577
members for the provincial assemblies. Elected members of the National
Assembly then will elect a Prime Minister to rule the country for the
next five years.
But
never in the history of Pakistan has an elected government survived
its full term in office. Every time the elected government is
dismissed, either by the president or by a military intervention.
It
was only Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto who, in 1977 announced
pre-mature elections when one year of his term still remained. The
rest of the country’s political history is marred by military
interventions.
Almost
half the time since the independence in 1947, army chiefs have ruled
Pakistan. In 1958 when General Ayub Khan dismissed a democracy for
martial law. Then General Pervez Musharraf was the fourth army chief
to do away with an elected government exactly three years ago.
The
National Security Council can check working of the parliament, with
powers to dismiss the government and the parliament back in the
President’s hands. Thus, the elected prime minister would have very
little maneuvering space as far as policy making issues are concerned.
President
Musharraf has time and again made it clear that he will not allow the
elected government to do anything against the national interest. And
in the absence of a clear definition of this so-called “national
interest” the future prime minister can be sacked for any reason.
With
the constitutional package intact and a very strong set of policy
covering almost every aspect of government, the new government will
not be able to rule freely. And anyone trying to reverse the
amendments or policies carefully derived in the last three years will
face the consequences.
“I
will see then whether they survive or me” was the answer from the
General when he was asked in a press conference announcing the new
constitutional amendments regarding what would happen if the new
parliament tried to reverse these constitutional amendments.
“Not
much will change in any case” is what the International Crisis
Group, a think-tank on the security issues based in Islamabad thinks
of the impact the new government may have on the local and regional
horizon. This feeling is also very popular amongst the public. A large
number of people think this election will not change much.
Other
factors can also be discussed but this is the prime reason why
Pakistanis have taken so little interest in the election campaigns run
by different political parties and candidates. Unlike the past, life
goes on as normal. The traditional fervor of an election campaign is
absent.
The
results are almost predictable. Absence of genuinity from these
elections is evident from the fact that these are the most predictable
elections in the history of Pakistan. Even the outlook of the future
parliament and the party position is being discussed with a lot of
authority by the political workers and leaders and journalists.
A
strange phenomenon has struck these elections. A batch of 95
independent candidates has come up contesting with one symbol, the
crescent. The fact that some of the heavyweight politicians have opted
this symbol has raised many eyebrows.
This
is not seen only as a coincidence that many relatives of army generals
and some pro-Musharraf senior politicians are contesting under this
symbol. Political pundits foresee these independents as a decisive
force in the parliament when a prime ministerial vote takes place.
The
newspapers, veteran political leaders and political pundits are
predicting a hung parliament with majority of seats (110 plus) going
to the King’s party followed by 60 odd seats for the PPP and around
30 for the PML (N). The U.S. bombings on Afghanistan are likely to
benefit of the religious parties expected to be at their best in these
elections with as many as 30 seats.
Results
can be embarrassing for General Musharraf in terms of voter’s
turnout. Pakistanis have never been enthusiastic voters. On the
average in the last five ballots, 43 per cent of Pakistanis came out
to vote on a polling day.
In
the last elections in 1997, this ratio was less than 37 per cent. This
time it is expected to be worse than that.
As
President Musharraf has flouted the elections in Indian held Kashmir,
on the basis of low turnout, he faces the same risk in case the
voter’s turnout on October 10 is anywhere less than 30 per cent.
