Bush, Blair are now engaged in diplomatic maneuvering to win over UN member states for a war resolution on Iraq

New York, February 1 (IslamOnline & News Agencies) - As the United States and close ally Britain now agreed to give the inspectors and the intelligence agencies as long as six weeks to persuade skeptical states to come on board for a military offensive against Iraq, there are a diplomatic arm-twisting exercise designed to ensure that members of the UN Security Council will support a second resolution sanctioning military action in Iraq.

Only four members of the 15 member Security Council support war at present - Bulgaria and Spain standing alongside the U.S. and Britain - but the U.S. and Britain expressed confidence they can convert this over the next few weeks into an overwhelming majority in favor, The Guardian reported Saturday, February 1.

A U.S. official spelt out the hard reality. "We would certainly not remind those countries who receive U.S. aid of that assistance in a meeting when we are discussing an issue like Iraq," he said.

"Those countries that receive aid from the United States themselves recognize the importance of donor dollars, and don't need to be reminded." He added.

Officials in Washington and London are already working on a war draft that will declare Iraq to be in material breach of resolution 1441 passed in November and note that the resolution warned failure to comply would have "serious consequences".

The draft is not expected to be tabled until after the UN chief weapons inspector, Hans Blix, reports to the security council on February 14.

A British source predicted an eventual majority of 13, with only Syria and Germany refusing to vote for action.

Where They Stand

Where UN states now stand on Iraq seems a nagging question for the U.S. administration needing majority vote in the international organization for the war decision.

Ideally with a second UN Security Council resolution, Britain is prepared to go to war against Iraq if it fails to offer "grade A" cooperation with weapons inspectors, The Guardian reported.

But the over-aggressive behavior by Washington will present Tony Blair with an even greater challenge in selling military conflict to a skeptical public.

Downing Street believes the agreement of the U.S. to give the inspectors a few more weeks shows that Washington is responding to concerns in Europe.

However, U.S. and British officials need more time to persuade France, China and Russia that striking Iraq is a necessary means to put an end to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein's (alleged) threatening danger.

Although it is not likely to use its veto for the war decision, France is expected to resort to abstention as the most likely course, said The Guardian.

Paris now believes that inspectors must be allowed time to finish their job as war is always the worst solution, but French participation in an eventual force is by no means ruled out if UN procedure is followed.

Diplomatic sources say Jacques Chirac has had "cordial" conversations this week with Colin Powell and Tony Blair, and the "gang of eight" letter has sharply increased the pressure on France to come round from its high-risk strategy. So far it shows little sign of doing so, insisting that as long as inspectors are in place any Iraqi "threat" is neutralized.

Russia now opposes U.S. unilateral moves, but President Vladimir Putin has said their insistence on a diplomatic solution may soften if Baghdad hampers inspections.

Moscow is not expected to veto a military action against Baghdad with Russian oil companies have several multibillion dollar contracts to develop Iraqi wells and Bush has said publicly that the U.S. will honor Russia's interests.

While China, another veto-wielding UN member state, does not want to encourage Washington's unilateralism, but it is unlikely to stand in the way of military action and its opposition would likely to be just lip service.

The visit of U.S. Undersecretary of State, James Kelly, this month reminded China that long-term gains from improved trade with America are more important than short-term political point-scoring.

Difficult to Shift

But Germany and Syria are expected to keep their course as the staunchest opponents of any potential military intervention in Iraq.

Germany is to abstain from voting "yes" for war. But its export-orientated economy could suffer considerable damage if orders were withheld by the administration or U.S. corporations. 

But Syria, the most intractable opponent of going to war, will be reluctant to endorse war this time round and will vote against the war resolution .

Syrian President Bashar Assad, is desperate to see his country return to the international fold. So, Damascus fears that if it opposes U.S. it might be next in the firing line. It has been passing on intelligence to the U.S. on al-Qaeda.

Middle Swing Ground

UN diplomats said the diplomatic maneuvering is for the "middle swing ground" occupied by countries at present opposed to war: Chile, Angola, Guinea, Cameroon, Mexico and Pakistan. But they are regarded by U.S.-UK as easiest to win over.

Having just finished years of arduous free trade negotiations with the U.S., Chile is unlikely to feel emboldened to challenge U.S. pressures in the Security Council and not support a resolution.

Advocating more time for arms inspection, Angola suggests it will support a second resolution, including a possible threat of war.

Angola's oil contributes one sixth of America's total imports, making America its biggest investor by far. On January 24, the U.S. state department announced that it would be giving African states another $8.4m (£5.25m) for emergency refugee relief. Of that amount $4.1m (£2.6m) was earmarked for Angola.

Cameroon also wants more time for arms inspections, but would support a second resolution, including a threat of war. Modest oil reserves were swollen by a ruling of the International Court of Justice in October, awarding it the oil-rich Bakassi peninsula which it had disputed with Nigeria. America and Britain backed the ruling against Nigerian complaints.

One of Africa's poorest and least politicized Muslim countries, with 75% of the population illiterate and average life expectancy at 43 years. President Lansana Conté's 19-year rule of Guinea has been sustained by American aid (currently $50m - £31m - a year) and military training. No wonder it would support a resolution

More Arm-Twisting

Mexico and Pakistan are also  in the "middle swing ground" but will require much more arm-twisting to vote "yes" for war.

The center-right government in Mexico has spoken out in favor of giving more time to the inspectors, it may follow if wind blows in another direction and support a resolution.

Supporting continued weapons inspections and diplomatic resolution of the conflict, Pakistan will not support U.S. invasion but will keep criticism muted. Abstain or vote against.

General Pervez Musharraf faces the challenge of preventing the conflict in Iraq from spreading into Pakistan. He is already walking a dangerous tightrope - between his support for the U.S. "war on terror" and growing anti-American sentiment at home. Washington has offered Pakistan generous loan deals. Gen Musharraf has ruled out Pakistan's involvement in any war against Iraq. 

Economic incentives as well as diplomatic pressure are now on the offer. But are they enough to guarantee the United States a success in its ongoing maneuvering for a unanimously approves war decision on Iraq is still a question with no definite answer.